Closing spread
NE -13
Total
37
Model margin
+10.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.099
- 37.7%Success rate46.5%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.039
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate45.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.10Points / drive2.15
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/29 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/30 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
| Rohan Davey | 1/4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 116 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Cedric Cobbs | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rohan Davey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.73