Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41
Model margin
-6.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play-0.056
- 46.7%Success rate43.6%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.002
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.36CPOE+1.59
- 44.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.35Points / drive1.64
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SF are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/32 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 1 | 73 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 14/29 | 130 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-6.16