Closing spread
GB -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.017
- 41.1%Success rate46.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.009
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- +0.93CPOE+0.52
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.54Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. GB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 10/15 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 5/6 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/35 | 251 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68