2014 · Week 13

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

21·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

57

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapPackers
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.142
  • 46.4%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.32CPOE+2.68
  • 45.6%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.59
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 46.2 points. GB are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4NE @ GB24–27GB
2018 · W9GB @ NE17–31NE
2010 · W15GB @ NE27–31NE
2006 · W11NE @ GB35–0NE
2002 · W6GB @ NE28–10GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–GB
GBQ1 15:00953Field goal0–3
NEQ1 11:14420Punt0–3
GBQ1 9:161271Field goal0–6
NEQ1 3:2739Punt0–6
GBQ1 1:53485Touchdown0–13
NEQ1 0:08573Touchdown7–13
GBQ2 12:591257Field goal7–16
NEQ2 5:541283Touchdown14–16
GBQ2 1:09581Touchdown14–23
NEQ2 0:1400End of half14–23
NEQ3 15:0047Punt14–23
GBQ3 13:57832Missed field goal14–23
NEQ3 9:29513Punt14–23
GBQ3 7:18725Punt14–23
NEQ3 2:211073Touchdown21–23
GBQ4 13:511065Field goal21–26
NEQ4 8:411243Missed field goal21–26
GBQ4 2:40313End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3524520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10585.80
Brandon Bolden3175.71
Shane Vereen362.00
Jonas Gray144.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski712980
Julian Edelman710480
Brandon LaFell57382
Shane Vereen12260
Michael Hoomanawanui11230
Timothy Wright11120
Danny Amendola0100
Aaron Dobson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3836820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy21984.70
Aaron Rodgers5224.40
Randall Cobb284.00
James Starks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams6111210
Randall Cobb711850
Jordy Nelson26531
Richard Rodgers22351
James Starks22340
Andrew Quarless22170
Eddie Lacy23170
Jarrett Boykin1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80