Closing spread
GB -3
Total
57
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.142
- 46.4%Success rate47.1%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.32CPOE+2.68
- 45.6%Third-down rate47.1%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.38Points / drive2.59
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. GB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/35 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 12 | 98 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 38 | 2 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/38 | 368 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80