Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.000
- 43.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- 38.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.69
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/27 | 147 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 31 | 136 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Franks | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| David Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/44 | 183 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 5 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| David Givens | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| David Patten | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.80