2010 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

27·31

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -14

Total

43.5

Model margin

+8.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.191
  • 45.9%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.096
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +5.31CPOE+2.77
  • 41.3%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.76
  • 2.0%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4NE @ GB24–27GB
2018 · W9GB @ NE17–31NE
2014 · W13NE @ GB21–26GB
2006 · W11NE @ GB35–0NE
2002 · W6GB @ NE28–10GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NE
NEQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
GBQ1 14:581040Field goal3–0
NEQ1 8:45773Touchdown3–7
GBQ1 6:1932Punt3–7
NEQ1 4:46834Punt3–7
GBQ1 0:52369Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 14:5132Punt10–7
GBQ2 12:3830Punt10–7
NEQ2 11:21525Punt10–7
GBQ2 8:431660Touchdown17–7
NEQ2 2:1734Touchdown17–14
GBQ2 1:0829End of half17–14
GBQ3 15:00520Opp touchdown17–21
GBQ3 12:041359Touchdown24–21
NEQ3 5:083-9Punt24–21
GBQ3 3:541053Field goal27–21
NEQ4 13:49653Field goal27–24
GBQ4 11:0535Punt27–24
NEQ4 9:38663Touchdown27–31
GBQ4 7:14415Punt27–31
NEQ4 4:5234Punt27–31
GBQ4 4:221237Turnover27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn24/3725131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson22994.50
Matt Flynn3134.30
Dimitri Nance6111.80
Greg Jennings1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones58951
Donald Driver36310
Greg Jennings45301
Jordy Nelson12160
Dimitri Nance22160
Andrew Quarless24120
Brett Swain1160
Brandon Jackson1230
Tom Crabtree0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady15/2416320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead9596.60
BenJarvus Green-Ellis6386.31
Aaron Hernandez11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker36420
Deion Branch22330
Aaron Hernandez45312
Rob Gronkowski12250
BenJarvus Green-Ellis22120
Danny Woodhead12120
Brandon Tate1350
Alge Crumpler1130
Julian Edelman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.4%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.69