Closing spread
NE -14
Total
43.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.191
- 45.9%Success rate48.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.096
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.2%
- +5.31CPOE+2.77
- 41.3%Third-down rate48.3%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.91Points / drive2.76
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 24/37 | 251 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 5 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/24 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.69