Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.067
- 44.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.89CPOE-5.72
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.82Points / drive1.28
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. GB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/31 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 5/15 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4/12 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89