2022 · Postseason
Week 18
Week 18: 16 games played. 49ers produced the widest margin at 25 points; the tightest finish was Texans at Colts, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Raiders start Jarrett Stidham rather than Derek Carr, which the model treats as worth about 2.8 points against them.
Titans start Joshua Dobbs rather than Ryan Tannehill, which the model treats as worth about 5.2 points against them.
Falcons start Desmond Ridder rather than Marcus Mariota, which the model treats as worth about 0.7 points against them.
Buccaneers start Blaine Gabbert rather than Tom Brady, an unfamiliar starter the model prices conservatively.
Chiefs lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.179, 0.068 clear of second.
49ers have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.112 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Giants at Eagles, where it rates Giants about 11.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
