2018 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·31

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

56

Model margin

+4.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.090
  • 45.9%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.031
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.39CPOE+1.03
  • 36.5%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.32
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4NE @ GB24–27GB
2014 · W13NE @ GB21–26GB
2010 · W15GB @ NE27–31NE
2006 · W11NE @ GB35–0NE
2002 · W6GB @ NE28–10GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NE
NEQ1 15:001059Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 11:401457Field goal3–7
NEQ1 5:0549Punt3–7
GBQ1 3:30843Punt3–7
NEQ1 0:14773Field goal3–10
GBQ2 13:3036Punt3–10
NEQ2 12:3730Punt3–10
GBQ2 11:371474Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 4:49754Touchdown10–17
GBQ2 1:57618Punt10–17
NEQ2 0:1500End of half10–17
GBQ3 15:00886Touchdown17–17
NEQ3 11:181366Turnover on downs17–17
GBQ3 7:0233Punt17–17
NEQ3 5:146-4Punt17–17
GBQ3 2:34564Turnover17–17
NEQ4 14:521076Touchdown17–24
GBQ4 10:063-6Punt17–24
NEQ4 8:30372Touchdown17–31
GBQ4 7:201022Turnover on downs17–31
NEQ4 3:48431End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/4325920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones14755.40
Jamaal Williams7344.90
Aaron Rodgers482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling361010
Jimmy Graham46551
Davante Adams69401
Randall Cobb56240
Jamaal Williams22200
Aaron Jones24100
Marcedes Lewis1150
Equanimeous St. Brown1440
Lance Kendricks0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3529410
Julian Edelman1/13700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson11615.51
James White12312.62
Julian Edelman22814.00
Kenjon Barner144.00
Tom Brady5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon591301
James White67720
Julian Edelman610710
Phillip Dorsett33300
Dwayne Allen11210
Cordarrelle Patterson1170
Chris Hogan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.50