Closing spread
NE -5
Total
56
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.090
- 45.9%Success rate47.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.031
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.39CPOE+1.03
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.8%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.05Points / drive2.32
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/43 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 40 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/35 | 294 | 1 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 1 |
| James White | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 9 | 130 | 1 |
| James White | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.50