2023 · Postseason
Week 18
Week 18: 16 games played. Saints produced the widest margin at 31 points; the tightest finish was Seahawks at Cardinals, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Ravens start Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson, which the model treats as worth about 0.9 points for them.
Steelers start Mason Rudolph rather than Kenny Pickett, which the model treats as worth about 5.7 points for them.
Bengals start Jake Browning rather than Joe Burrow, which the model treats as worth about 2.6 points for them.
Browns start Jeff Driskel rather than Joe Flacco, which the model treats as worth about 8.5 points against them.
49ers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.179, 0.057 clear of second.
Browns have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.155 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Eagles at Giants, where it rates Giants about 8.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
