2023 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

27·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.160
  • 41.5%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -3.92CPOE-1.80
  • 34.4%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.00
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W16CAR @ IND6–38IND
2015 · W8IND @ CAR26–29CAR
2011 · W12CAR @ IND27–19CAR
2007 · W8IND @ CAR31–7IND
2003 · W6CAR @ IND23–20CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CAR
CARQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:00419Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:0631Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:0551Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:111460Field goal3–0
CARQ2 13:523-4Punt3–0
INDQ2 12:121051Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 7:43834Field goal10–3
INDQ2 3:341041Field goal13–3
CARQ2 0:53624Opp touchdown20–3
CARQ2 0:201-7End of half20–3
INDQ3 15:005-6Punt20–3
CARQ3 12:291577Touchdown20–10
INDQ3 4:34625Punt20–10
CARQ3 1:48670Opp touchdown27–10
CARQ4 13:401344Field goal27–13
INDQ4 8:0964Punt27–13
CARQ4 4:5824Turnover27–13
INDQ4 4:3137Punt27–13
CARQ4 3:23618Turnover on downs27–13
INDQ4 1:5200End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew17/2612710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18472.60
Zack Moss7263.70
Gardner Minshew551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman88640
Jonathan Taylor55221
Andrew Ogletree13190
Isaiah McKenzie23120
Josh Downs11100
Kylen Granson0200
Alec Pierce0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young24/3917313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard16583.60
Bryce Young5418.20
Miles Sanders6396.50
Raheem Blackshear100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hayden Hurst24540
Adam Thielen56290
Stephen Sullivan45280
Miles Sanders35220
Tommy Tremble22120
DJ Chark2391
Chuba Hubbard4690
Raheem Blackshear1150
Jonathan Mingo1450
Terrace Marshall Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.77