Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.160
- 41.5%Success rate38.2%
- +0.030EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- -3.92CPOE-1.80
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.78Points / drive1.00
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 17/26 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 24/39 | 173 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.77