Closing spread
IND -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.100
- 39.3%Success rate46.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.35Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/20 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rod Smart | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/34 | 293 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.18