Closing spread
IND -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.100
- 39.3%Success rate46.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.35Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:12 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:50 | 4 | 47 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:49 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:32 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 13:33 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:50 | 6 | 5 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 8:19 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 6:25 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CAR | Q2 0:15 | 1 | -13 | End of half | 3–13 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| CAR | Q3 14:07 | 1 | 28 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| IND | Q3 13:59 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 12:39 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| IND | Q3 10:22 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q3 8:42 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 17–13 |
| IND | Q3 5:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q3 3:43 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| IND | Q3 0:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q4 14:05 | 4 | 21 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| IND | Q4 11:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–13 |
| CAR | Q4 9:07 | 11 | 35 | Punt | 20–13 |
| IND | Q4 3:08 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| CAR | Q4 0:45 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| CAR | OT | 11 | 38 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/20 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rod Smart | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/34 | 293 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.18