2015 · Week 8

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

26·29

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.074
  • 40.1%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -4.10CPOE+0.41
  • 40.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.31
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9IND @ CAR27–13IND
2019 · W16CAR @ IND6–38IND
2011 · W12CAR @ IND27–19CAR
2007 · W8IND @ CAR31–7IND
2003 · W6CAR @ IND23–20CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CAR
INDQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:2533Field goal0–3
INDQ1 13:4137Turnover0–3
CARQ1 12:241137Touchdown0–10
INDQ1 7:21626Punt0–10
CARQ1 4:3438Punt0–10
INDQ1 2:5158Punt0–10
CARQ1 0:2533Punt0–10
INDQ2 14:40627Field goal3–10
CARQ2 10:24418Turnover3–10
INDQ2 8:0836Field goal6–10
CARQ2 7:04311Turnover6–10
INDQ2 6:06520Punt6–10
CARQ2 2:30748Punt6–10
INDQ2 0:53217End of half6–10
CARQ3 15:00736Punt6–10
INDQ3 11:12828Punt6–10
CARQ3 6:33879Turnover6–10
INDQ3 2:2331Punt6–10
CARQ3 1:02229Touchdown6–17
INDQ3 0:143-6Punt6–17
CARQ4 14:063-7Punt6–17
INDQ4 12:2520Turnover6–17
CARQ4 12:08330Touchdown6–23
INDQ4 10:44886Touchdown13–23
CARQ4 7:04415Punt13–23
INDQ4 4:42857Touchdown20–23
CARQ4 2:2737Punt20–23
INDQ4 2:021354Field goal23–23
INDOT523Field goal26–23
CAROT857Field goal26–26
INDOT22Turnover26–26
CAROT35Field goal26–29

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/4723123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore22703.20
Andrew Luck6355.80
Ahmad Bradshaw7314.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson48811
Griff Whalen55480
Coby Fleener711431
Frank Gore33220
Donte Moncrief27180
T.Y. Hilton17150
Dwayne Allen1340
Ahmad Bradshaw0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/3524821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart24823.41
Cam Newton10414.10
Corey Brown11414.00
Fozzy Whittaker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen612791
Ted Ginn210600
Corey Brown35421
Jerricho Cotchery23180
Devin Funchess1180
Jonathan Stewart1210
Fozzy Whittaker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.48