Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.074
- 40.1%Success rate45.5%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.10CPOE+0.41
- 40.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.47Points / drive2.31
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/47 | 231 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Griff Whalen | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 7 | 11 | 43 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/35 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 82 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.48