Closing spread
IND -7
Total
44
Model margin
-1.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.088
- 48.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.070
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.87CPOE-5.47
- 49.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.49Points / drive1.27
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 19 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 2:54 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 0:47 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 12:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 11:29 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 9:31 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 8:44 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 6:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 5:41 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 3:31 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:33 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 10–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 12:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| IND | Q3 10:35 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 9:21 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–7 |
| IND | Q3 5:33 | 2 | 70 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q3 4:47 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 24–7 |
| IND | Q3 2:26 | 12 | 55 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| CAR | Q4 13:09 | 12 | 54 | Turnover | 31–7 |
| IND | Q4 9:40 | 13 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 31–7 |
| CAR | Q4 2:42 | 11 | 50 | End of half | 31–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/30 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Kenton Keith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Clifton Dawson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/25 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 12/20 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin-1.13