2011 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

27·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapColts
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.8%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.096
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.182
  • 12.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -0.04CPOE-4.66
  • 38.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.05
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9IND @ CAR27–13IND
2019 · W16CAR @ IND6–38IND
2015 · W8IND @ CAR26–29CAR
2007 · W8IND @ CAR31–7IND
2003 · W6CAR @ IND23–20CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–IND
CARQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:5632Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:25933Field goal3–0
INDQ1 4:073-1Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:11662Touchdown10–0
INDQ2 14:03538Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 12:08510Punt10–7
INDQ2 8:3758Punt10–7
CARQ2 5:483-15Punt10–7
INDQ2 4:13734Field goal10–10
CARQ2 1:46848Missed field goal10–10
INDQ3 15:0030Punt10–10
CARQ3 13:29764Touchdown17–10
INDQ3 9:1333Punt17–10
CARQ3 8:12629Turnover17–10
INDQ3 4:52658Field goal17–13
CARQ3 0:32990Touchdown24–13
INDQ4 10:23680Touchdown24–19
CARQ4 8:1639Field goal27–19
INDQ4 5:53432Turnover27–19
CARQ4 4:21418Punt27–19
INDQ4 3:091169Turnover27–19
CARQ4 0:3500End of half27–19

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/2720800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart10707.00
DeAngelo Williams15694.62
Cam Newton9535.91
Steve Smith199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith37680
Brandon LaFell56460
Jeremy Shockey33410
Greg Olsen33240
Legedu Naanee34170
Jonathan Stewart34120

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter15/2922612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown14805.71
Joseph Addai7233.30
Pierre Garcon221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne571221
Pierre Garcon38340
Austin Collie37280
Jacob Tamme23200
Donald Brown11170
Ryan Mahaffey1150
Joseph Addai0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.48