Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.129
- 44.8%Success rate39.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.096
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.182
- 12.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- -0.04CPOE-4.66
- 38.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 2.08Points / drive1.05
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/27 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 15/29 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 7 | 122 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Mahaffey | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.48