Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+6.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.009
- 43.3%Success rate44.5%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.022
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.45CPOE-3.86
- 32.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grier | 27/44 | 224 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Will Grier | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 15 | 119 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 14/27 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.42