2019 · Week 16

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Will Grier

6·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+6.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapColts
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.009
  • 43.3%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.106EPA / rush+0.022
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.45CPOE-3.86
  • 32.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.94
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9IND @ CAR27–13IND
2015 · W8IND @ CAR26–29CAR
2011 · W12CAR @ IND27–19CAR
2007 · W8IND @ CAR31–7IND
2003 · W6CAR @ IND23–20CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–IND
CARQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:47931Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:2833Opp touchdown0–14
CARQ1 7:411266Turnover on downs0–14
INDQ1 1:35611Punt0–14
CARQ1 0:301161Field goal3–14
INDQ2 10:18975Touchdown3–21
CARQ2 5:1442Turnover3–21
INDQ2 3:12956Turnover on downs3–21
CARQ2 0:3914End of half3–21
INDQ3 15:00943Field goal3–24
CARQ3 10:591143Field goal6–24
INDQ3 4:1632Punt6–24
CARQ3 3:151558Turnover on downs6–24
INDQ4 13:38833Punt6–24
CARQ4 9:08414Opp touchdown6–31
CARQ4 7:1628Turnover6–31
INDQ4 6:44875Touchdown6–38
CARQ4 3:10526Turnover6–38
INDQ4 1:3200End of half6–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Grier27/4422403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13544.20
Will Grier4174.30
Reggie Bonnafon2126.00
Curtis Samuel242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey15151190
Greg Olsen25330
Jarius Wright15190
Curtis Samuel25170
Chris Hogan23160
Ian Thomas33160
DeAndrew White13120
Brandon Zylstra1130
DJ Moore1210

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett14/2711900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack16955.91
Jordan Wilkins9849.31
Jacoby Brissett33712.31
Nyheim Hines144.00
Brian Hoyer3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton34260
Mo Alie-Cox11210
Ross Travis12190
Dontrelle Inman12180
Jack Doyle24170
Zach Pascal1360
Marlon Mack2260
Marcus Johnson1420
Jacoby Brissett1120
Nyheim Hines1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.42