1999 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

17·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

38

Model margin

-0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBears
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.102
  • 38.7%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.228
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 39.1%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.03
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3CHI @ KC10–41KC
2019 · W16KC @ CHI26–3KC
2015 · W5CHI @ KC18–17CHI
2011 · W13KC @ CHI10–3KC
2007 · W2KC @ CHI10–20CHI
2003 · W17CHI @ KC3–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CHI
KCQ1 15:001069Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:141361Touchdown3–7
KCQ1 4:32946Turnover3–7
CHIQ200Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 15:00526Field goal3–10
KCQ2 12:45728Punt3–10
CHIQ2 9:501379Field goal3–13
KCQ2 3:49414Punt3–13
CHIQ2 2:18663Touchdown3–20
KCQ2 0:51434End of half3–20
CHIQ3 15:00422Punt3–20
KCQ3 12:50617Punt3–20
CHIQ3 9:541157Punt3–20
KCQ3 5:13186Touchdown10–20
CHIQ3 5:0100Missed field goal10–20
KCQ3 5:0132Missed field goal10–20
CHIQ3 4:06852—10–20
CHIQ400Opp touchdown10–20
CHIQ4 15:0053Opp touchdown17–20
KCQ4 12:2400Opp touchdown17–20
CHIQ4 12:24521Punt17–20
KCQ4 9:35950Punt17–20
CHIQ4 4:4135Punt17–20
KCQ4 2:5940Turnover on downs17–20
CHIQ4 2:4032Punt17–20
KCQ4 2:1043Turnover on downs17–20
CHIQ4 1:4400End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac20/4228311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimble Anders10393.90
Rashaan Shehee4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Alexander6101541
Lonnie Johnson34410
Rashaan Shehee23200
Kimble Anders25140
Andre Rison19120
Joe Horn11100
Kevin Lockett1480

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews25/3824520
Cade McNown6/97700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis22642.90
Glyn Milburn2115.50
Bobby Engram199.00
Shane Matthews3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Conway912880
Curtis Enis58691
Bobby Engram68530
Marcus Robinson44470
Macey Brooks23280
Ryan Wetnight23250
Glyn Milburn1380
John Allred1111
Edgar Bennett0100
Alonzo Mayes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.30