Closing spread
KC -3
Total
38
Model margin
-0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.102
- 38.7%Success rate38.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.228
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.01Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/42 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 6 | 10 | 154 | 1 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 25/38 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 6/9 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Conway | 9 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Edgar Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.30