Closing spread
CHI -11.5
Total
35
Model margin
-0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.128
- 37.8%Success rate38.4%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.190
- 5.9%Explosive rate6.6%
- -0.79CPOE-3.34
- 34.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 0.94Points / drive1.34
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 19/28 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 4/4 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 20/34 | 160 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.69