2019 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

26·3

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBears
  • +0.135EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.0%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +1.86CPOE-1.71
  • 48.7%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.50
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3CHI @ KC10–41KC
2015 · W5CHI @ KC18–17CHI
2011 · W13KC @ CHI10–3KC
2007 · W2KC @ CHI10–20CHI
2003 · W17CHI @ KC3–31KC
1999 · W1KC @ CHI17–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00924Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:281582Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 1:3034Punt7–0
KCQ2 14:47716Field goal10–0
CHIQ2 11:41732Punt10–0
KCQ2 7:3415105Touchdown17–0
CHIQ2 0:52333End of half17–0
KCQ3 15:00520Punt17–0
CHIQ3 12:041578Turnover on downs17–0
KCQ3 4:29414Punt17–0
CHIQ3 2:5068Field goal17–3
KCQ4 15:00971Touchdown23–3
CHIQ4 10:051021Turnover on downs23–3
KCQ4 7:421043Field goal26–3
CHIQ4 1:40934Turnover on downs26–3
KCQ4 0:0600End of half26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3325120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams16654.10
Spencer Ware5142.80
Patrick Mahomes2147.01
Darwin Thompson5142.80
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce89741
Tyreek Hill55720
Sammy Watkins25280
Damien Williams33271
Spencer Ware23220
Blake Bell23150
Demarcus Robinson12130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky18/3415700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery13574.40
Mitchell Trubisky6203.30
Cordarrelle Patterson11616.00
Tarik Cohen284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson612530
Javon Wims39260
Tarik Cohen34250
Jesper Horsted11200
J.P. Holtz11130
Eric Saubert12110
Cordarrelle Patterson1150
Anthony Miller1220
David Montgomery1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.73