Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play-0.079
- 47.0%Success rate41.1%
- +0.247EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.0%
- +1.86CPOE-1.71
- 48.7%Third-down rate36.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.59Points / drive1.50
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/33 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Darwin Thompson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 18/34 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73