Closing spread
KC -10
Total
44
Model margin
+6.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.033
- 42.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.51CPOE+0.03
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.6%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.92
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. KC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/45 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquess Wilson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 11 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 6 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Khari Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/30 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.00