2015 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

18·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

44

Model margin

+6.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.033
  • 42.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.51CPOE+0.03
  • 42.3%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.92
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. KC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3CHI @ KC10–41KC
2019 · W16KC @ CHI26–3KC
2011 · W13KC @ CHI10–3KC
2007 · W2KC @ CHI10–20CHI
2003 · W17CHI @ KC3–31KC
1999 · W1KC @ CHI17–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–KC
CHIQ1 15:00827Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:2939Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:543-5Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 8:13533Field goal0–7
CHIQ1 5:4110Field goal0–7
CHIQ1 5:13836Field goal3–7
KCQ1 0:5336Punt3–7
CHIQ2 14:4736Punt3–7
KCQ2 13:25749Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 9:5738Punt3–14
KCQ2 8:05743Punt3–14
CHIQ2 4:0534Punt3–14
KCQ2 3:091057Field goal3–17
CHIQ2 0:0900End of half3–17
KCQ3 15:001271Missed field goal3–17
CHIQ3 8:421073Field goal6–17
KCQ3 3:29519Punt6–17
CHIQ3 1:03512Punt6–17
KCQ4 13:0434Punt6–17
CHIQ4 11:27619Turnover on downs6–17
KCQ4 9:2532Punt6–17
CHIQ4 7:511273Touchdown12–17
KCQ4 3:0534Punt12–17
CHIQ4 2:04943Touchdown18–17
KCQ4 0:18223Missed field goal18–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/4525220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte18713.90
Jay Cutler4153.80
Jacquizz Rodgers231.50
Jeremy Langford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquess Wilson68851
Cameron Meredith44520
Matt Forte57381
Martellus Bennett411320
Josh Bellamy68310
Jeremy Langford12140
Zach Miller0100
Marc Mariani0300
Khari Lee0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/3018110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles12584.80
Charcandrick West7314.40
Alex Smith3217.00
De'Anthony Thomas155.00
Knile Davis221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin812850
Travis Kelce36350
Jamaal Charles14260
De'Anthony Thomas23241
Chris Conley1360
Charcandrick West1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.00