Closing spread
CHI -9
Total
35
Model margin
-2.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.110
- 38.8%Success rate39.3%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.61CPOE-2.53
- 35.7%Third-down rate32.9%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.06Points / drive1.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Palko | 17/30 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Hanie | 11/24 | 133 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Caleb Hanie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.73