2011 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Tyler Palko

10·3

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Hanie

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CHI -9

Total

35

Model margin

-2.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBears
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.110
  • 38.8%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.61CPOE-2.53
  • 35.7%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 38.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.37
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. CHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3CHI @ KC10–41KC
2019 · W16KC @ CHI26–3KC
2015 · W5CHI @ KC18–17CHI
2007 · W2KC @ CHI10–20CHI
2003 · W17CHI @ KC3–31KC
1999 · W1KC @ CHI17–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CHI
KCQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:2835Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:0848Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 7:5737Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:4233Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:2465Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:1634Punt0–0
KCQ1 1:19512Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:31946Field goal0–3
KCQ2 9:4439Punt0–3
CHIQ2 7:41630Punt0–3
KCQ2 4:161592Touchdown7–3
CHIQ3 15:0033Punt7–3
KCQ3 13:261586Field goal10–3
CHIQ3 6:1610Turnover10–3
KCQ3 6:0636Punt10–3
CHIQ3 4:38735Missed field goal10–3
KCQ3 0:183-3Punt10–3
CHIQ4 14:143-10Punt10–3
KCQ4 12:27414Punt10–3
CHIQ4 10:3431Punt10–3
KCQ4 8:4135Punt10–3
CHIQ4 6:31546Turnover10–3
KCQ4 4:013-1Punt10–3
CHIQ4 2:52510Turnover on downs10–3
KCQ4 1:523-2Punt10–3
CHIQ4 0:0610Turnover10–3

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Palko17/3015710
Kyle Orton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster9616.80
Thomas Jones16362.30
Jackie Battle11151.40
Tyler Palko111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe49490
Dexter McCluster45461
Steve Breaston57410
Terrance Copper12100
Jon Baldwin1470
Jerheme Urban1110
Jeremy Horne0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Hanie11/2413303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14443.10
Kahlil Bell4348.50
Matt Forte5122.40
Caleb Hanie133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox58530
Kellen Davis22400
Devin Hester34350
Earl Bennett1450
Roy Williams0100
Marion Barber0100
Sam Hurd0200
Kahlil Bell0100
Dane Sanzenbacher0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +93.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

0.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.73