1999 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 15 games played. Panthers produced the widest margin at 32 points; the tightest finish was Raiders at Chiefs, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Bills start Rob Johnson rather than Doug Flutie, which the model treats as worth about 2.9 points for them.
Saints start Jake Delhomme rather than Billy Joe Tolliver, which the model treats as worth about 2.3 points against them.
Bears start Cade McNown rather than Shane Matthews, which the model treats as worth about 1.7 points against them.
Buccaneers start Shaun King rather than Trent Dilfer, which the model treats as worth about 0.2 points for them.
Commanders lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.098, 0.026 clear of second.
Buccaneers have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.164 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Rams at Eagles, where it rates Eagles about 9.0 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
