Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.124
- 38.3%Success rate47.9%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.016EPA / rush+0.069
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.44Points / drive2.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. KC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 5/15 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Chandler | 6/17 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 6/10 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/27 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 3/3 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.38