Closing spread
KC -13
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.021
- 41.6%Success rate43.8%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.01CPOE+1.52
- 41.7%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.72Points / drive1.89
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. KC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11/22 | 99 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/33 | 272 | 3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3/5 | 31 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Justyn Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84