2023 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

10·41

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -13

Total

48

Model margin

+2.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.021
  • 41.6%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.52
  • 41.7%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.89
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.7 points. KC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W16KC @ CHI26–3KC
2015 · W5CHI @ KC18–17CHI
2011 · W13KC @ CHI10–3KC
2007 · W2KC @ CHI10–20CHI
2003 · W17CHI @ KC3–31KC
1999 · W1KC @ CHI17–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–KC
KCQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:25421Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:36663Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 6:51731Punt0–7
KCQ1 2:311180Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 11:34522Punt0–14
KCQ2 8:291188Touchdown0–21
CHIQ2 3:0515Turnover0–21
KCQ2 2:5733Field goal0–24
CHIQ2 1:5120Turnover0–24
KCQ2 1:37326Touchdown0–31
CHIQ2 1:0636Punt0–31
KCQ2 0:35535Field goal0–34
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt0–34
KCQ3 12:541163Touchdown0–41
CHIQ3 7:40716Turnover on downs0–41
KCQ3 4:3736Turnover0–41
CHIQ3 3:161025Field goal3–41
KCQ4 13:341146Turnover3–41
CHIQ4 7:09975Touchdown10–41
KCQ4 4:20530End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields11/229911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields11474.30
Roschon Johnson8384.80
Khalil Herbert7314.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore36411
Cole Kmet22220
Chase Claypool14150
Roschon Johnson22110
Tyler Scott1360
Khalil Herbert2240
Darnell Mooney0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3327230
Blaine Gabbert3/53102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15624.11
Clyde Edwards-Helaire15553.71
Patrick Mahomes3289.30
Jerick McKinnon294.50
Blaine Gabbert2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce78691
Rashee Rice57590
Justin Watson23510
Skyy Moore46420
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12370
Jerick McKinnon33192
Isiah Pacheco23160
Noah Gray1290
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1120
Justyn Ross0100
Kadarius Toney11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.84