Closing spread
GB -9
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/47 | 333 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Mark Chmura | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.