Closing spread
GB -9
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:03 | 7 | 31 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:01 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:44 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:57 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:48 | 7 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:54 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:35 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 8:19 | 11 | 54 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:17 | 5 | 43 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 10–7 |
| GB | Q3 10:12 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:42 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–14 |
| GB | Q3 3:45 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| LV | Q3 2:33 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 2:28 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 0:00 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:52 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LV | Q4 7:20 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 24–21 |
| GB | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LV | Q4 2:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–21 |
| GB | Q4 1:51 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LV | Q4 0:11 | 2 | -5 | End of half | 24–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/47 | 333 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Mark Chmura | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.