Closing spread
GB -11.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/29 | 274 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 10 | 85 | 8.5 | 2 |
| Brandon Saine | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.