2011 · Week 14

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

16·46

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -11.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5GB @ LV13–17RAIDERS
2019 · W7OAK @ GB24–42GB
2015 · W15GB @ OAK30–20GB
2007 · W14OAK @ GB7–38GB
2003 · W16GB @ OAK41–7GB
1999 · W1OAK @ GB24–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–GB
LVQ1 15:0037Turnover0–0
GBQ1 12:11147Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 11:57416Punt0–7
GBQ1 7:5512Touchdown0–14
LVQ1 4:0513Punt0–14
GBQ1 2:27219Field goal0–17
LVQ2 13:0714Punt0–17
GBQ2 11:2716Touchdown0–24
LVQ2 9:1412Turnover0–24
GBQ2 8:3126Touchdown0–31
LVQ2 7:0615Turnover on downs0–31
GBQ2 5:4951Turnover0–31
LVQ2 4:081066Turnover0–31
GBQ2 0:4012End of half0–31
GBQ3 15:00427Field goal0–34
LVQ3 12:41980Touchdown7–34
GBQ3 8:15949Field goal7–37
LVQ3 3:312-8Opp touchdown7–43
LVQ3 2:4800Punt7–43
LVQ3 2:4823Punt7–43
LVQ3 2:0010Punt7–43
GBQ3 1:49611Field goal7–46
LVQ4 14:21517Punt7–46
GBQ4 12:273-1Safety9–46
LVQ4 11:011382Touchdown16–46
GBQ4 4:43311Punt16–46
LVQ4 2:59516Turnover16–46
GBQ4 1:4100End of half16–46

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/2927421
Matt Flynn0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant10858.52
Brandon Saine177.00
Matt Flynn3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson37811
Donald Driver46750
Randall Cobb22450
James Jones23290
Greg Jennings25200
Ryan Grant11130
Brandon Saine1170
Ryan Taylor1141
Jermichael Finley0100
D.J. Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.78

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.