2023 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

13·17

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -1

Total

45

Model margin

-0.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.086
  • 45.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.151
  • 9.2%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +1.07CPOE-3.79
  • 47.4%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.66
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.4 points. LV are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W7OAK @ GB24–42GB
2015 · W15GB @ OAK30–20GB
2011 · W14OAK @ GB16–46GB
2007 · W14OAK @ GB7–38GB
2003 · W16GB @ OAK41–7GB
1999 · W1OAK @ GB24–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–LV
GBQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:21625Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:30760Field goal3–0
LVQ1 2:38533Punt3–0
GBQ2 14:53411Punt3–0
LVQ2 12:371457Touchdown3–7
GBQ2 4:0910Turnover3–7
LVQ2 4:003-1Field goal3–10
GBQ2 2:3233Punt3–10
LVQ2 0:55641Missed field goal3–10
GBQ2 0:07111End of half3–10
LVQ3 15:00412Turnover3–10
GBQ3 12:49837Touchdown10–10
LVQ3 8:2734Punt10–10
GBQ3 7:15476Field goal13–10
LVQ3 5:161075Touchdown13–17
GBQ4 14:561028Turnover13–17
LVQ4 9:1132Punt13–17
GBQ4 7:0348Punt13–17
LVQ4 5:35733Missed field goal13–17
GBQ4 1:56823Turnover13–17
LVQ4 0:4400End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love16/3018203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon20763.81
Jordan Love23718.50
Patrick Taylor221.00
Christian Watson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson37910
Luke Musgrave67340
Josiah Deguara11190
Ben Sims11120
Dontayvion Wicks11100
Jayden Reed1270
Patrick Taylor2550
Romeo Doubs1440
AJ Dillon0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo22/3120811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs20693.51
Tre Tucker11616.00
Jimmy Garoppolo441.00
Ameer Abdullah144.00
DeAndre Carter231.50
Jakobi Meyers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers710751
Davante Adams44450
Michael Mayer23390
Josh Jacobs55200
Ameer Abdullah11110
Austin Hooper22110
Hunter Renfrow1270
DeAndre Carter0100
Tre Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.16