Closing spread
LV -1
Total
45
Model margin
-0.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.086
- 45.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.151
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.07CPOE-3.79
- 47.4%Third-down rate35.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.16Points / drive1.66
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. LV are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/30 | 182 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 7 | 91 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 22/31 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.16