Closing spread
GB -4
Total
47
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. OAK are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/39 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 6 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.