2015 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·20

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

47

Model margin

+2.5est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.4 points. OAK are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5GB @ LV13–17RAIDERS
2019 · W7OAK @ GB24–42GB
2011 · W14OAK @ GB16–46GB
2007 · W14OAK @ GB7–38GB
2003 · W16GB @ OAK41–7GB
1999 · W1OAK @ GB24–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–OAK
GBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:49726Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:243-3Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:5831Turnover0–0
GBQ1 6:20417Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 5:0810Opp touchdown14–0
LVQ1 4:531145Field goal14–3
GBQ2 14:535-6Punt14–3
LVQ2 12:33966Field goal14–6
GBQ2 8:36522Punt14–6
LVQ2 6:1338Punt14–6
GBQ2 4:581255Turnover14–6
LVQ2 1:22479Touchdown14–13
GBQ2 0:2028End of half14–13
LVQ3 15:0030Punt14–13
GBQ3 13:15716Field goal17–13
LVQ3 10:18881Touchdown17–20
GBQ3 6:48353Touchdown24–20
LVQ3 5:46623Punt24–20
GBQ3 3:122092Field goal27–20
LVQ4 10:0153Punt27–20
GBQ4 6:54631Field goal30–20
LVQ4 4:254-4Turnover on downs30–20
GBQ4 3:2621Turnover30–20
LVQ4 2:36934Turnover on downs30–20
GBQ4 1:3134Missed field goal30–20
LVQ4 1:05410Turnover on downs30–20
GBQ4 0:0300End of half30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3920411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks9515.70
Eddie Lacy11232.10
Randall Cobb4184.50
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones69821
Randall Cobb57400
Jared Abbrederis33330
Davante Adams58320
Richard Rodgers1470
James Starks1150
Justin Perillo1150
Jeff Janis0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.