Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/31 | 429 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Dexter Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 133 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Danny Vitale | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.