Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutArden KeyDEKnee· DNP
- OutTyrell WilliamsWRFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulTrenton BrownTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Limited
Packers
- OutDarnell SavageSAnkle· DNP
- OutDavante AdamsWRToe· DNP
- DoubtfulGeronimo AllisonWRConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulRobert TonyanTEHip· DNP
- QuestionableKenny ClarkDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableMarquez Valdes-ScantlingWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTony BrownCBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedAaron RodgersQBKnee
- LimitedJimmy GrahamTEAnkle
- LimitedTramon WilliamsCBKnee
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:21 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:42 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:09 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:01 | 17 | 101 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 11:33 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 3:27 | 5 | 74 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 1:49 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| LV | Q3 12:04 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| GB | Q3 6:41 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| LV | Q3 2:06 | 11 | 74 | Turnover on downs | 17–35 |
| GB | Q4 11:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–35 |
| LV | Q4 9:28 | 4 | 43 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| GB | Q4 8:09 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–42 |
| LV | Q4 6:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–42 |
| GB | Q4 4:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–42 |
| LV | Q4 2:09 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 24–42 |
| GB | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/31 | 429 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Dexter Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 133 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Danny Vitale | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.