Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/23 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 29 | 156 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.