Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:51 | 8 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:20 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:54 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:47 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q2 14:52 | 11 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:51 | 5 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:23 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:08 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 10:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–23 |
| GB | Q3 9:24 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q3 9:11 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–24 |
| GB | Q3 6:49 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 4:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–31 |
| GB | Q3 2:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 0:27 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| GB | Q3 0:08 | 5 | 39 | Missed field goal | 7–31 |
| LV | Q4 12:13 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 7–31 |
| GB | Q4 8:21 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–38 |
| LV | Q4 4:00 | 9 | 17 | End of half | 7–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/23 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 29 | 156 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.