Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.4 points. OAK are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:53 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:18 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:36 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:17 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:03 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 9:54 | 5 | 94 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| LV | Q2 7:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:46 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 24–7 |
| GB | Q2 3:15 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 31–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:04 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 31–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 34–7 |
| LV | Q3 13:00 | 6 | 58 | Turnover | 34–7 |
| GB | Q3 10:06 | 11 | 50 | Punt | 34–7 |
| LV | Q3 4:00 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 34–7 |
| GB | Q3 1:09 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 34–7 |
| LV | Q4 12:58 | 9 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 34–7 |
| GB | Q4 9:28 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 41–7 |
| LV | Q4 4:46 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 41–7 |
| GB | Q4 3:58 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 41–7 |
| LV | Q4 2:17 | 7 | 56 | Turnover | 41–7 |
| GB | Q4 0:49 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/30 | 399 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.