Closing spread
MIA -9
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.116
- 35.9%Success rate37.3%
- -0.148EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.186
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.3%Third-down rate34.2%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 0.87Points / drive1.17
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/27 | 112 | 0 | 4 |
| Michael Pittman | 1/1 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 7 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 2 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 21/35 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 4 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Yatil Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.99