1999 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

16·19

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -9

Total

41

Model margin

+4.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.116
  • 35.9%Success rate37.3%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.186
  • 5.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 0.87Points / drive1.17
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8ARI @ MIA28–27ARI
2020 · W9MIA @ ARI34–31MIA
2016 · W14ARI @ MIA23–26MIA
2012 · W4MIA @ ARI21–24ARI
2008 · W2MIA @ ARI10–31ARI
2004 · W9ARI @ MIA24–23ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:4935Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:14836Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 5:53754Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 3:491047Field goal0–6
ARIQ2 14:091742Field goal3–6
MIAQ2 6:5400Field goal3–6
ARIQ2 6:4333Field goal6–6
MIAQ2 5:4410Opp touchdown13–6
ARIQ2 5:2000Opp touchdown13–6
MIAQ2 5:2032Punt13–6
ARIQ2 3:3137Punt13–6
MIAQ2 2:13971Touchdown13–13
ARIQ2 0:2500End of half13–13
ARIQ3 15:00410Punt13–13
MIAQ3 13:23513Turnover13–13
ARIQ3 10:3631Field goal16–13
MIAQ3 9:12724Field goal16–16
ARIQ3 5:1110Turnover16–16
MIAQ3 4:4930Field goal16–19
ARIQ3 4:263-1Punt16–19
MIAQ3 2:0639Punt16–19
ARIQ3 0:00633Missed field goal16–19
MIAQ4 11:48236Turnover16–19
ARIQ4 11:0546Turnover16–19
MIAQ4 9:3248Punt16–19
ARIQ4 7:50726Punt16–19
MIAQ4 4:45951Missed field goal16–19
ARIQ4 1:147-1Turnover16–19
MIAQ4 0:1500End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer11/2711204
Michael Pittman1/12600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell20593.00
Jake Plummer242.00
David Boston122.00
Michael Pittman5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders711760
Rob Moore210480
Adrian Murrell2390
David Boston1250
Michael Pittman0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino21/3522112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins15453.00
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar9333.70
J.J. Johnson341.30
Dan Marino1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
O.J. McDuffie49850
Troy Drayton57501
Tony Martin23320
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar34180
Oronde Gadsden22110
Yatil Green1170
J.J. Johnson1250
Hunter Goodwin1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.99