Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.173
- 38.1%Success rate35.8%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.9%
- 34.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.19Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 18/31 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/21 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 6/15 | 129 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 11 | 90 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.21
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.00