Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
49
Model margin
+1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.051
- 46.8%Success rate46.0%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.23CPOE+2.07
- 38.5%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/28 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/26 | 283 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 25 | 70 | 2.8 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 8 | 123 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.33