2020 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

34·31

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

49

Model margin

+1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.051
  • 46.8%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.23CPOE+2.07
  • 38.5%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.19
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8ARI @ MIA28–27ARI
2016 · W14ARI @ MIA23–26MIA
2012 · W4MIA @ ARI21–24ARI
2008 · W2MIA @ ARI10–31ARI
2004 · W9ARI @ MIA24–23ARI
1999 · W2ARI @ MIA16–19MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–ARI
MIAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:03511Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 10:371155Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 6:511265Touchdown14–7
ARIQ1 0:55480Touchdown14–14
MIAQ2 14:23980Touchdown21–14
ARIQ2 10:181056Field goal21–17
MIAQ2 5:06518Punt21–17
ARIQ2 1:50314Punt21–17
MIAQ2 0:46426Field goal24–17
ARIQ3 15:00869Touchdown24–24
MIAQ3 11:4873Punt24–24
ARIQ3 8:381380Touchdown24–31
MIAQ3 2:281178Touchdown31–31
ARIQ4 11:191133Turnover on downs31–31
MIAQ4 5:15428Field goal34–31
ARIQ4 3:30444Missed field goal34–31
MIAQ4 1:53310End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa20/2824820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Salvon Ahmed7385.40
Tua Tagovailoa7355.00
Jordan Howard10191.91
Patrick Laird1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker67640
Preston Williams45601
Mike Gesicki34420
Jakeem Grant45350
Durham Smythe11190
Patrick Laird11170
Mack Hollins11111
Adam Shaheen0100
Malcolm Perry0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray21/2628330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray111069.61
Chase Edmonds25702.80
D.J. Foster122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk581231
Larry Fitzgerald45540
DeAndre Hopkins33300
Darrell Daniels11211
Chase Edmonds33180
Dan Arnold11160
Andy Isabella23100
D.J. Foster1170
Maxx Williams1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.33