2012 · Week 4

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

21·24

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.049EPA / play-0.259
  • 42.9%Success rate35.1%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.242
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -2.89CPOE-8.47
  • 37.7%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.37Points / drive0.79
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8ARI @ MIA28–27ARI
2020 · W9MIA @ ARI34–31MIA
2016 · W14ARI @ MIA23–26MIA
2008 · W2MIA @ ARI10–31ARI
2004 · W9ARI @ MIA24–23ARI
1999 · W2ARI @ MIA16–19MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:191040Punt0–0
ARIQ1 5:0335Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:041364Field goal3–0
ARIQ2 13:1558Punt3–0
MIAQ2 9:56426Punt3–0
ARIQ2 7:454-4Punt3–0
MIAQ2 5:45895Touchdown10–0
ARIQ2 1:56532Turnover10–0
MIAQ2 0:27225Field goal13–0
ARIQ2 0:0300End of half13–0
MIAQ3 15:00632Missed field goal13–0
ARIQ3 12:43859Touchdown13–7
MIAQ3 9:46719Punt13–7
ARIQ3 6:3337Punt13–7
MIAQ3 4:59414Turnover13–7
ARIQ3 3:42725Punt13–7
MIAQ3 1:3342Punt13–7
ARIQ4 14:113-15Punt13–7
MIAQ4 12:5639Punt13–7
ARIQ4 11:12381Touchdown13–14
MIAQ4 9:45441Turnover13–14
ARIQ4 8:0521Turnover19–14
MIAQ4 7:17180Touchdown21–14
ARIQ4 7:0534Punt21–14
MIAQ4 5:14416Turnover21–14
ARIQ4 2:511051Touchdown21–21
MIAQ4 0:2200End of half21–21
ARIOT3-3Punt21–21
MIAOT517Turnover21–21
ARIOT619Field goal21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/4143112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush17673.90
Lamar Miller4133.30
Daniel Thomas441.00
Ryan Tannehill100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline12192531
Davone Bess7121230
Anthony Fasano55300
Legedu Naanee12190
Daniel Thomas1160
Reggie Bush0100
Charles Clay0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb29/4832432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Williams13262.00
William Powell221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts691182
Larry Fitzgerald815641
Rob Housler23480
Michael Floyd48350
Early Doucet47310
Jeff King22220
William Powell2260
Ryan Williams1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.69