Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play-0.259
- 42.9%Success rate35.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.242
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.0%
- -2.89CPOE-8.47
- 37.7%Third-down rate25.9%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.37Points / drive0.79
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/41 | 431 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 12 | 19 | 253 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 7 | 12 | 123 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 29/48 | 324 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Williams | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| William Powell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 6 | 9 | 118 | 2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 15 | 64 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| William Powell | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.69