2016 · Week 14

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

23·26

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

ARI -2

Total

44

Model margin

-0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.092
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -0.78CPOE+4.52
  • 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.80
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8ARI @ MIA28–27ARI
2020 · W9MIA @ ARI34–31MIA
2012 · W4MIA @ ARI21–24ARI
2008 · W2MIA @ ARI10–31ARI
2004 · W9ARI @ MIA24–23ARI
1999 · W2ARI @ MIA16–19MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIA
ARIQ1 15:00624Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 11:36447Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 9:27375Touchdown6–7
MIAQ1 8:00412Turnover6–7
ARIQ1 6:211-2Turnover6–7
MIAQ1 6:15522Punt6–7
ARIQ1 2:4936Turnover6–7
MIAQ1 1:1728Turnover6–7
ARIQ1 0:2232Punt6–7
MIAQ2 14:36638Touchdown6–14
ARIQ2 11:4146Turnover6–14
MIAQ2 10:003-4Punt6–14
ARIQ2 8:58957Missed field goal6–14
MIAQ2 3:024-7Punt6–14
ARIQ2 1:3930Field goal9–14
MIAQ2 1:18414Punt9–14
ARIQ2 0:0900End of half9–14
MIAQ3 15:00787Touchdown9–21
ARIQ3 11:1738Punt9–21
MIAQ3 9:13625Punt9–21
ARIQ3 4:5441Punt9–21
ARIQ3 3:0442Punt9–21
MIAQ3 1:46420Punt9–21
ARIQ4 13:481573Touchdown15–23
MIAQ4 7:0531Punt15–23
ARIQ4 5:14750Touchdown23–23
MIAQ4 3:0137Punt23–23
ARIQ4 1:553-1Punt23–23
MIAQ4 1:29544Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/3314522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson20804.00
J.J. Nelson15656.01
Kerwynn Williams33411.30
Carson Palmer351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham57450
David Johnson58410
Michael Floyd23180
Larry Fitzgerald39120
Darren Fells13120
Brittan Golden1191
J.J. Nelson1281

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2019531
Matt Moore3/54700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi20482.40
Ryan Tannehill5204.00
Kenyan Drake188.00
Damien Williams571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry461030
Kenny Stills67971
Jay Ajayi13150
DeVante Parker23140
Dion Sims2291
Kenyan Drake1130
Damien Williams2311

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.27