Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
44
Model margin
-0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.004
- 45.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -0.78CPOE+4.52
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.89Points / drive1.80
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/33 | 145 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 56 | 56.0 | 1 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/20 | 195 | 3 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 3/5 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 20 | 48 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 6 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.27