Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.040
- 47.3%Success rate44.3%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.246
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.11CPOE+3.08
- 43.0%Third-down rate35.4%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.31Points / drive1.92
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/36 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 7 | 111 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/38 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 97 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-5.15
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.97