2024 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

28·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tim Boyle

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.040
  • 47.3%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.246
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.11CPOE+3.08
  • 43.0%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.92
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W9MIA @ ARI34–31MIA
2016 · W14ARI @ MIA23–26MIA
2012 · W4MIA @ ARI21–24ARI
2008 · W2MIA @ ARI10–31ARI
2004 · W9ARI @ MIA24–23ARI
1999 · W2ARI @ MIA16–19MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001061Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:1534Punt0–7
MIAQ1 9:171251Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 1:16970Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 11:28614Punt7–10
ARIQ2 9:081138Punt7–10
MIAQ2 3:421288Field goal7–13
ARIQ2 0:1520End of half7–13
ARIQ3 15:00542Field goal10–13
MIAQ3 11:43670Touchdown10–20
ARIQ3 8:3148Punt10–20
MIAQ3 6:2920Safety12–20
ARIQ3 6:15975Touchdown18–20
MIAQ3 2:08970Touchdown18–27
ARIQ4 12:22870Touchdown25–27
MIAQ4 8:47823Punt25–27
ARIQ4 5:011383Field goal28–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray26/3630720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner20532.61
Kyler Murray5193.80
Trey Benson11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride9111240
Marvin Harrison Jr.671111
Michael Wilson56311
James Conner23160
Elijah Higgins22130
Greg Dortch1290
Zay Jones1130
Emari Demercado0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa28/3823410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane10979.70
Raheem Mostert9192.12
Jaylen Wright2189.00
Tua Tagovailoa3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill69720
De'Von Achane68501
Jaylen Waddle46450
Jonnu Smith46200
Raheem Mostert12110
Julian Hill33110
Dee Eskridge1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.15
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.97