Closing spread
ARI -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.052
- 46.3%Success rate45.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.140
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.74CPOE+5.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.69Points / drive2.12
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:49 | 2 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 12:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:59 | 8 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q1 5:40 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 0:28 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 8:46 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 5:10 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 0:50 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| MIA | Q3 10:29 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| ARI | Q3 5:26 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| MIA | Q3 1:27 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 3–31 |
| ARI | Q4 14:38 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 3–31 |
| MIA | Q4 9:42 | 19 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| ARI | Q4 2:38 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 10/20 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 7/12 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/24 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1/2 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00