Closing spread
MIN -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 44 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:55 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:19 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 3:19 | 6 | 48 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:38 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:34 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 8:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 6:31 | 6 | 29 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 2:46 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:36 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 6–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q3 8:55 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:37 | 4 | 6 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| MIN | Q3 7:01 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 16–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:22 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 22–10 |
| MIN | Q3 1:08 | 7 | 50 | Touchdown | 22–17 |
| LV | Q4 14:06 | 5 | 49 | Punt | 22–17 |
| MIN | Q4 12:03 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 22–17 |
| LV | Q4 11:10 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 22–17 |
| MIN | Q4 9:05 | 6 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 22–17 |
| LV | Q4 7:23 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 22–17 |
| MIN | Q4 3:40 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 22–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:20 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 22–17 |
| MIN | Q4 0:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 23/39 | 364 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reed | 5 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 4 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.