Closing spread
MIN -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 23/39 | 364 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reed | 5 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 4 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.