Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.086
- 43.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.151
- 9.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- +2.80CPOE-3.79
- 37.5%Third-down rate35.2%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.66
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. LV are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 9/13 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 10/23 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 21/32 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.37