Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/22 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 203 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.