Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutJustin TrattouDEFoot· Limited
- DoubtfulEric KendricksLBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableAnthony BarrLBHand· Limited
- QuestionableMarcus SherelsCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTeddy BridgewaterQBConcussion· Full
- ProbableBrian RobisonDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableCordarrelle PattersonWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableLinval JosephDTFoot· Full
- ProbableSharrif FloydDTKnee· Full
- ProbableTerence NewmanCBConcussion· Full
Raiders
- OutNeiron BallLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRodney HudsonCAnkle· DNP
- ProbableAmari CooperWRQuadricep· Full
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableClive WalfordTEQuadricep· Full
- ProbableLatavius MurrayRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableT.J. CarrieCBHip· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:20 | 8 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:14 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:49 | 5 | 39 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:32 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 14:52 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:33 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:54 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:21 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| MIN | Q2 1:52 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 17 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q3 10:03 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:22 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q3 1:01 | 9 | 60 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 10:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q4 9:31 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| LV | Q4 3:50 | 8 | 68 | Turnover | 29–14 |
| MIN | Q4 2:03 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| LV | Q4 1:50 | 10 | 73 | End of half | 30–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/22 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 203 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.