2011 · Week 11

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

27·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

46

Model margin

+0.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14MIN @ LV3–0MIN
2019 · W3OAK @ MIN14–34MIN
2015 · W10MIN @ OAK30–14MIN
2007 · W11OAK @ MIN22–29MIN
2003 · W11MIN @ OAK18–28RAIDERS
1999 · W2OAK @ MIN22–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–MIN
MINQ1 15:00314Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:56616Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:411245Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 5:17844Field goal3–7
MINQ1 0:57759Turnover3–7
LVQ2 13:00953Touchdown10–7
MINQ2 9:10717Turnover on downs10–7
LVQ2 4:42857Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 1:2000Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 1:14416Touchdown24–7
MINQ2 0:0800End of half24–7
LVQ3 15:00414Punt24–7
MINQ3 12:13712Punt24–7
LVQ3 9:4738Punt24–7
MINQ3 7:3434Punt24–7
LVQ3 6:0234Punt24–7
MINQ3 4:2610Turnover24–7
LVQ3 4:18621Field goal27–7
MINQ3 0:51472Touchdown27–14
LVQ4 14:52733Missed field goal27–14
MINQ4 11:131128Turnover27–14
LVQ4 8:10418Turnover27–14
MINQ4 5:58238Touchdown27–21
LVQ4 5:08611Punt27–21
MINQ4 3:01617Turnover on downs27–21
LVQ4 1:5236Punt27–21
MINQ4 0:0216Turnover27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder19/3321123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian Ponder57114.20
Adrian Peterson6264.31
Percy Harvin5214.20
Toby Gerhart7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin68731
Visanthe Shiancoe23420
Devin Aromashodu14420
Michael Jenkins47300
Toby Gerhart1170
Kyle Rudolph3571
Greg Camarillo1240
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+0.58

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.