Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
46
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 19/33 | 211 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 5 | 71 | 14.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.