Closing spread
MIN -8.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 15/21 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.