Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 14:11 | 8 | 73 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:32 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 8:13 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:34 | 6 | 48 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:07 | 9 | 21 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:24 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:33 | 1 | -9 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| LV | Q2 8:29 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 8:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:45 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 3:30 | 12 | 70 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| MIN | Q3 11:23 | 11 | 50 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–21 |
| MIN | Q3 4:04 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 2:12 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q4 13:02 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:52 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q4 9:16 | 2 | 81 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| LV | Q4 8:32 | 10 | 74 | Turnover on downs | 18–21 |
| MIN | Q4 3:06 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 18–21 |
| LV | Q4 2:46 | 4 | 11 | Touchdown | 18–28 |
| MIN | Q4 2:16 | 10 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 18–28 |
| LV | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 18–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 27/49 | 396 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.