Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
35
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/22 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 2/2 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 22 | 164 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.