Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
35
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 14:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 12:43 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:51 | 3 | 3 | Safety | 0–9 |
| MIN | Q1 8:30 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| LV | Q1 7:31 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| MIN | Q1 4:45 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 3–12 |
| LV | Q2 14:56 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–12 |
| MIN | Q2 12:57 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 10–12 |
| LV | Q2 12:44 | 4 | 7 | Field goal | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q2 11:18 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–19 |
| LV | Q2 9:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–19 |
| MIN | Q2 7:20 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–19 |
| LV | Q2 4:35 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 16–19 |
| MIN | Q2 1:42 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 16–19 |
| LV | Q2 0:46 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 19–19 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 19–19 |
| MIN | Q3 10:57 | 5 | 48 | Field goal | 19–22 |
| LV | Q3 8:23 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 19–22 |
| MIN | Q3 5:46 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 19–22 |
| LV | Q3 4:32 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 19–22 |
| MIN | Q3 2:44 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 19–29 |
| LV | Q4 14:52 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 19–29 |
| MIN | Q4 10:55 | 9 | 44 | Punt | 19–29 |
| LV | Q4 5:22 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 22–29 |
| MIN | Q4 3:23 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 22–29 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–29 |
| LV | Q4 1:46 | 10 | 46 | End of half | 22–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/22 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 2/2 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 22 | 164 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.