1999 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play-0.149
- 40.6%Success rate35.1%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.38Points / drive1.03
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 9:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 8:39 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:16 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 4:29 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 12:55 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 10:37 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:44 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 2:54 | 9 | 11 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 13:29 | 9 | 21 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 7:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 6:15 | 9 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 2:42 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 14:04 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 11:19 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 9:29 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 8:11 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 5:51 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 4:08 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 2:33 | 2 | 27 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 2:15 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 10–13 |
| TB | Q4 1:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 14/29 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 15/18 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85