2008 · Week 5
Final
Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.101
- 43.2%Success rate49.2%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.84CPOE+1.41
- 38.9%Third-down rate48.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.55Points / drive2.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. DEN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/17 | 93 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 13/19 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/34 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73