2016 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.005
- 41.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- -0.31CPOE+1.81
- 34.4%Third-down rate44.2%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.51Points / drive1.74
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton Lynch | 14/24 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5/7 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Paxton Lynch | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 8 | 13 | 88 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 17/35 | 179 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92