2016 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

27·7

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.005
  • 41.0%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.208
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -0.31CPOE+1.81
  • 34.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.74
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3DEN @ TB26–7DEN
2020 · W3TB @ DEN28–10TB
2012 · W13TB @ DEN23–31DEN
2008 · W5TB @ DEN13–16DEN
2004 · W4DEN @ TB16–13DEN
1999 · W3DEN @ TB10–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TB
TBQ1 15:0034Turnover6–0
DENQ1 13:31111Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 13:261485Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 6:40421Punt7–7
TBQ1 4:50622Punt7–7
DENQ1 1:1859Punt7–7
TBQ2 14:0030Turnover7–7
DENQ2 13:10418Touchdown14–7
TBQ2 12:14822Punt14–7
DENQ2 8:17414Punt14–7
TBQ2 5:54715Turnover14–7
DENQ2 3:2533Punt14–7
TBQ2 1:4636Punt14–7
DENQ2 1:19847Field goal17–7
TBQ2 0:0500End of half17–7
DENQ3 15:001664Field goal20–7
TBQ3 7:033-7Punt20–7
DENQ3 5:25628Punt20–7
TBQ3 2:0533Punt20–7
DENQ3 0:083-1Punt20–7
TBQ4 14:44410Punt20–7
DENQ4 13:341090Touchdown27–7
TBQ4 8:55534Punt27–7
DENQ4 7:2257Punt27–7
TBQ4 4:191122Turnover on downs27–7
DENQ4 1:3600End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Paxton Lynch14/2417010
Trevor Siemian5/76810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson19492.61
Devontae Booker7304.30
Kapri Bibbs3144.70
Paxton Lynch3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas67941
Emmanuel Sanders813881
Jordan Norwood22250
Jeff Heuerman11190
Jordan Taylor1190
C.J. Anderson1130
Bennie Fowler0300
Cody Latimer0200
Devontae Booker0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston17/3517902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charles Sims15281.90
Jacquizz Rodgers6254.20
Jameis Winston5193.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate58670
Mike Evans511590
Vincent Jackson35380
Charles Sims2370
Jacquizz Rodgers1240
Adam Humphries1440
Freddie Martino0100
Alan Cross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.92