2020 · Week 3
Final
Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.071
- 46.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.10CPOE-5.11
- 44.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.68Points / drive1.59
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. DEN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/38 | 297 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Miller | 3 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 17/30 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
| Brett Rypien | 8/9 | 53 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45