2020 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

28·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Jeff Driskel

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.071
  • 46.9%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +3.10CPOE-5.11
  • 44.2%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.68Points / drive1.59
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 34.3 points. DEN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3DEN @ TB26–7DEN
2016 · W4DEN @ TB27–7DEN
2012 · W13TB @ DEN23–31DEN
2008 · W5TB @ DEN13–16DEN
2004 · W4DEN @ TB16–13DEN
1999 · W3DEN @ TB10–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DEN
DENQ1 15:00728Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:41310Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 9:583-1Punt7–0
TBQ1 8:56525Punt7–0
DENQ1 5:5432Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:55931Field goal10–0
DENQ1 0:15637Field goal10–3
TBQ2 11:331275Touchdown17–3
DENQ2 6:353-5Punt17–3
TBQ2 4:56656Touchdown23–3
DENQ2 2:19964Touchdown23–10
TBQ2 0:1400End of half23–10
TBQ3 15:00626Punt23–10
DENQ3 12:184-3Safety25–10
TBQ3 11:44528Punt25–10
DENQ3 8:5338Punt25–10
TBQ3 7:49419Punt25–10
DENQ3 5:57635Turnover25–10
TBQ3 3:22638Field goal28–10
DENQ4 15:0066Punt28–10
TBQ4 12:11418Punt28–10
DENQ4 9:561355Turnover28–10
TBQ4 3:46528End of half28–10

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3829730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones13534.10
Leonard Fournette7152.10
Tom Brady500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Miller35830
Chris Godwin Jr.56641
O.J. Howard34490
Rob Gronkowski67480
LeSean McCoy24240
Ronald Jones24200
Leonard Fournette2270
Mike Evans2422

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel17/3017611
Brett Rypien8/95301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon8263.30
Jeff Driskel3144.70
Royce Freeman242.00
KJ Hamler1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy59550
Noah Fant510460
Tim Patrick44431
Royce Freeman22310
KJ Hamler35300
Melvin Gordon46120
Diontae Spencer1170
Jake Butt1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.45