2024 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.133
- 42.8%Success rate49.4%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.012
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +0.58CPOE+3.56
- 40.4%Third-down rate50.8%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.16Points / drive2.71
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 25/36 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Badie | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/33 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.88