2024 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

26·7

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.133
  • 42.8%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.012
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +0.58CPOE+3.56
  • 40.4%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.71
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W3TB @ DEN28–10TB
2016 · W4DEN @ TB27–7DEN
2012 · W13TB @ DEN23–31DEN
2008 · W5TB @ DEN13–16DEN
2004 · W4DEN @ TB16–13DEN
1999 · W3DEN @ TB10–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TB
DENQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:0532Punt7–0
DENQ1 9:2235Punt7–0
TBQ1 7:55517Turnover7–0
DENQ1 5:1054Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 2:5633Punt14–0
DENQ1 1:171361Field goal17–0
TBQ2 9:25725Turnover on downs17–0
DENQ2 6:04420Turnover17–0
TBQ2 4:35671Touchdown17–7
DENQ2 1:50850Field goal20–7
TBQ2 0:0200End of half20–7
TBQ3 15:00519Punt20–7
DENQ3 12:0733Punt20–7
TBQ3 11:1166Punt20–7
DENQ3 7:491669Field goal23–7
TBQ4 14:521045Turnover on downs23–7
DENQ4 9:52450Field goal26–7
TBQ4 7:301131Turnover26–7
DENQ4 3:33517Turnover on downs26–7
TBQ4 0:2514End of half26–7

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix25/3621600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Badie9707.80
Bo Nix9475.21
Javonte Williams5122.40
Jaleel McLaughlin571.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton711680
Lil'Jordan Humphrey68370
Josh Reynolds22360
Javonte Williams44290
Adam Trautman11130
Troy Franklin25110
Marvin Mims Jr.1190
Jaleel McLaughlin1170
Nate Adkins1160

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield25/3316311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving9707.80
Rachaad White6172.80
Sean Tucker144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.69531
Cade Otton78470
Rachaad White56180
Mike Evans23170
Bucky Irving33140
Payne Durham1180
Jalen McMillan1160
Trey Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.88